forecast trade business

Greenspan Sees Recession Risk
The BBC reports that former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan - who blasted Bush in his book - has warned that US economic growth has stalled and a quick recovery is not likely.As of right now US economic growth is at zero, he said, adding the longer it stayed this way the greater the risk of a deep recession.Wall Street giants Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch have both forecast that the US economy will contract in 2008.The US Federal Reserve has said 2008 growth will be between 1.3% and 2%.The forecast, made last week, was half a percent lower than the Feds previous estimation.The gloomy outlook was blamed on falling house prices, reduced bank lending, turmoil in the financial markets and higher oil prices.If the gloomy outlook isnt enough Greenspan also thinks oil will keep rising and that the housing mark will provide more concern before it gets better.Mr Greenspan also predicted that booming oil prices, which reached a record of more than $101 last week would keep rising and that the US housing market would see more misery before the tide turned.Greenspan isnt alone. Just yesterday there were reports that more analysts have jumped on the recession is likely bandwagon. If we do dip into an actual recession how long will we stay there? Thats the next question that needs answering.Permalink | Recent Headlines | WWFeeds.com

Economy Growing Very Slowly
The GDP grew 2.2% in 2007 and slow 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2007. Raw Story says economists were expecting 1.2% growth in Q4.For all of 2007, the economy grew by just 2.2 percent, the weakest performance in five years, when the country was struggling to recover from the 2001 recession. The housing collapse dealt the economy its biggest blow last year. Builders slashed spending on housing projects by 16.9 percent on an annualized basis, the most in 25 years.The economy has been subject to something of the perfect storm here. It has been hit by the housing slump the credit squeeze, the subprime slime and stock price declines on Wall Street, said economist Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics. The economy is weathering some pretty stormy seas but it is weak.The fourth-quarters performance was much weaker -- half the pace -- than economists were expecting. They were forecasting growth to clock in a 1.2 percent pace.The 0.6 percent annualized increase in gross domestic product GDP marked a big loss of momentum from the third quarters brisk, 4.9 percent showing. The fourth-quarter pace was the slowest since the first quarter of last year.IDEAglobals chief U.S. economist calls it stall speed according to MarketWatch.com. The GDP hit stall speed, wrote Joseph Brusuelas, chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.GDP hadnt been any slower since the end of 2002, when the economy was struggling to recover from the recession a year earlier.The 1st quarter 2008 GDP is going to be interested. Will the economy tread along, pick up speed or start to step into a recession?Permalink | Recent Headlines | WWFeeds.com

JC Penney Plunges After Cutting Profit Forecast (Update1) - Bloomberg
CNBCJC Penney Plunges After Cutting Profit Forecast Update1Bloomberg - 1 hour agoBy Lauren Coleman-Lochner March 28 Bloomberg -- JC Penney Co., the third-largest US department-store chain, plunged the most in more than 20 years in New York trading after the retailer cut its sales and earnings forecasts on slower consumer spending ...JC Penney cuts first-quarter forecast MarketWatchJP Penney Slashes Guidance, Wall Street JournalReuters - CNNMoney.com - Conde Nast Portfolio - RTT Newsall 112 news articles

Oil Hits $89 a Barrel
Those forecasts for oil to hit $100 a barrel arent sounding very funny anymore. Oil closed voer $89 a barrel today because of concerns in the Middle East. Turkey has approved the entry of its troops into Iraq which greatly escalate problems in what is already a troubled region. CNN reports that gas prices are just starting to feel the impact from the soaring oil prices. The AAA has gas prices up 4 cents already for the week.Earlier in the day, crude prices scrambled to an all-time trading high of $89.55 a barrel.Prices at the pump have been slow to respond to rising crude prices recently, but that may be changing. On Thursday, gas prices gained nearly 2 cents to a national average of $2.79 a gallon for regular-grade gasoline, according to AAA. They are up 4 cents since Monday.Prices at the pump have been slow to respond to rising crude prices recently, but that may be changing. On Thursday, gas prices gained nearly 2 cents to a national average of $2.79 a gallon for regular-grade gasoline, according to AAA. They are up 4 cents since Monday.Theres almost an inevitability here now that we are going to get to $100 a barrel, said John Kilduff, an energy analyst at Man Financial in New York.Helping to lift crude prices higher was a decline in the dollar, which fell to an all-time low versus the euro and also dipped versus the yenOil closed at $89.47 a barrel. You can track energy prices here on Bloomberg.com. This graph shows how rapidly oil prices have been climbing in 2007.Permalink | Recent Headlines | WWFeeds.com

Bernanke Says Some Small Banks May Fail
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in testimony in front of U.S. Congress today that there could be some bank failures because of the ongoing credit crisis. The AP reports that Bernanke did says that the large U.S. banks will likely recover but it is disturbing to hear he expects some small bank failures.Bernanke, testifying before Congress, said that while the large U.S. banks will likely recover from the recent credit crisis, others could fail.Implying that some banks may fail stirs concerns for any investor whos familiar with financial and economic history, said Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisors. Investors have been very edgy about credit market conditions and banks financial conditions. Very edgy. And this doesnt remove that edginess.Earlier, stocks had fallen in response to a Labor Department report that first-time unemployment claims rose last week by 19,000 to 373,000, the highest level since late January.Scott Wren, equity strategist for A.G. Edwards & Sons, said he still believes theres less than a 50 percent chance of a recession, but that its clear employers are cautious about hiring.To consistently see claims up near 400,000, thats pretty telling often-times of a recession, he said.On the positive side Bernanke doesnt anticipate a return to the stagflation periods of the 1970s - although with gas forecast to exceed $4 a gallon not everyone is convinced. Marketwatch reports that stocks are lower today following Bernankes words and news that last years GDP growth was just 0.6%Permalink | Recent Headlines | WWFeeds.com