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Greenspan Sees Recession Risk
The BBC reports that former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan - who blasted Bush in his book - has warned that US economic growth has stalled and a quick recovery is not likely.As of right now US economic growth is at zero, he said, adding the longer it stayed this way the greater the risk of a deep recession.Wall Street giants Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch have both forecast that the US economy will contract in 2008.The US Federal Reserve has said 2008 growth will be between 1.3% and 2%.The forecast, made last week, was half a percent lower than the Feds previous estimation.The gloomy outlook was blamed on falling house prices, reduced bank lending, turmoil in the financial markets and higher oil prices.If the gloomy outlook isnt enough Greenspan also thinks oil will keep rising and that the housing mark will provide more concern before it gets better.Mr Greenspan also predicted that booming oil prices, which reached a record of more than $101 last week would keep rising and that the US housing market would see more misery before the tide turned.Greenspan isnt alone. Just yesterday there were reports that more analysts have jumped on the recession is likely bandwagon. If we do dip into an actual recession how long will we stay there? Thats the next question that needs answering.Permalink | Recent Headlines | WWFeeds.com

Christmas Price Index Climbs in 2007
Prices are soaring and it will be more expensive to buy your True Love the Twelve Days of Christmas this year. The PNC Christmas Price Index says the significantly higher price of gold and increased compensation for minimum wage workers will make Christmas more expensiv. The PNC Christmas Price Index is a tongue-in-cheek economic analysis by PNC Wealth Management based on the cost of gifts in The Twelve Days of Christmas.According to the 23rd annual survey, the cost of The Twelve Days of Christmas is $19,507 in 2007, a 3.1 percent increase over last year. The rise in gift prices mirrored the U.S. governments Consumer Price Index. The Consumer Price Index is up 3.5 percent so far this year.Each year, the Christmas Price Index reflects trends in the broader economy, said James Dunigan, managing executive of investments for PNC Wealth Management. This year, increased commodities prices, concerns about the value of the dollar and the first minimum wage increase in 10 years were major factors in the increases to the Christmas Price Index.For example, True Loves are paying more this year for the five Gold rings. You can see an explanation of this below. There is also a video on the PNCs website.True Loves will have to pay a bit more for the five Gold Rings this year, as the jewelers who provide the prices for the rings report having no choice but to pass increased prices along to consumers as the price of gold continues to rise.The cost of the Gold Rings in this years Christmas Price Index reflects the general trend of increasing commodity prices in the Consumer Price Index, including gold, said Dunigan. In addition, increased fears about inflation and the value of the dollar may have led investors to turn to gold as a safer place to invest their money.The price of five gold rings now totals $395, a 21.5 percent increase over 2006 prices, but still nowhere close to 1989 prices, when the five Gold Rings hit an all-time high of $750.Milkmaids Benefit from Minimum Wage IncreaseAs the only unskilled laborers in the Christmas Price Index, the eight Maids-a-Milking make minimum wage, and have not had a raise since 1997. This year, Congress increased their wages by 13.6 percent; bringing the cost of eight Maids-a-Milking for one hour of work to $46.80. The True Love will have to reach deeper into his pockets for the milkmaids in 2008 and 2009, as well - Congress has already approved continued increases to the minimum wage for the next two years.The cost of most performers in the index - the Drummers Drumming, Pipers Piping and Lords-a-Leaping - rose a modest 3 to 4 percent, due primarily to an increase in the performers compensation, reflecting the current labor market in which the unemployment rate is still below 5 percent. Only the price for the Ladies Dancing was unchanged this year, according to Philadanco, a modern dance company in Philadelphia.Food Prices Are For the BirdsAmong the feathered friends in the Christmas Price Index, the most notable increase was a 20 percent change in the price for six Geese-a-Laying, provided by the National Aviary.For True Loves planning to serve a Christmas goose - or six - for a holiday meal, this item will be a bit more expensive, said Dunigan. Food prices have increased over the last year, which has not impacted birds like Turtle Doves and Partridges, but has had an impact on birds traditionally served as food, like Geese.Most of the other bird prices in the index remained even with last years rates, thanks to steady supply and demand for Partridges, Turtle Doves, French Hens and Swans. Aside from the Geese-a-Laying, only the Calling Birds will cost more in 2007. PNC prices the Calling Birds from a national pet store chain, and prices for Calling Birds or canaries were up 25 percent this year, thanks to higher demand and increased shipping costs for retailers.2007: Most Expensive Christmas EverFor those True Loves who prefer to do their shopping online, PNC Wealth Management calculates the cost of The Twelve Days of Christmas gifts purchased on the Web. This year, the trends identified in the traditional index are repeated in the Internet version, with overall growth of 3 percent, very close to the 3.1 percent in the traditional index. This year, the Internet index is very similar to the traditional index. For example, the price of gold is significantly higher online in 2007 compared to 2006. And, as with the traditional Christmas Price Index, bird prices are mostly even with or, in some cases, down a bit from 2006 levels. In general, Internet prices are higher than their non-Internet counterparts because of shipping costs.As part of its annual tradition, PNC Wealth Management also tabulates the True Cost of Christmas, which is the total cost of items gifted by a True Love who repeats all of the songs verses. This holiday season, very generous True Loves will pay more than ever before - $78,100 - for all 364 items, up from $75,122 in 2006. This 4 percent increase is about even with last years 3.5 percent increase.Permalink | Recent Headlines | WWFeeds.com

Global Markets Fall
The BBC is reporting some serious drops in foreign markets -- the biggest drops since stock markets plummeted after 9/11. The FTSE 100 was off 5.5%. Paris and Frankfurt are down 7%.Global stock indexes, including the UK FTSE 100, have fallen their most since the terrorist attacks of September 11 2001 amid fears of a recession.The FTSE 100 index tumbled 5.5% to 5,578.2, wiping ?84bn $163bn off the value of its listed shares.Indexes in Paris and Frankfurt slumped by about 7%, while markets in Asia, India and South America also dropped.Investors questioned whether a recent plan to boost the US economy would be enough to avert a full-blown recession.The U.S. markets are closed today to celebrate Martin Luther King Jr.s birthday. Marketwatch reports that stock future indicate the DOW will open 500 points down on Tuesday morning.Permalink | Recent Headlines | WWFeeds.com

The Credit Crisis: How We Got Here
Sometimes it is worth tacking a look at how we got into this mess in the first place. Reuters has a great recap in the video below. It began with a US housing problem that has quickly mushroomed into a crisis. In this video, Reuters explains how banks begin to tighten credit when a high percentage of subprime mortgages started to become overdue. The loan problem escalated and subprime lender New Century filed bankruptcy. These losses spread to larger banks that have had to write off billions of dollars of debt. Today, the credit problems have not gone away. Home prices are still dropping and inflation is a serious problem. The weakening economy is starting to impact growth and job creation. There are worldwide concerns that the U.S. will fall into a recession and this recessio nwill drag the global economy down with it.Direct video linkPermalink | Recent Headlines | WWFeeds.com

Economy Growing Very Slowly
The GDP grew 2.2% in 2007 and slow 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2007. Raw Story says economists were expecting 1.2% growth in Q4.For all of 2007, the economy grew by just 2.2 percent, the weakest performance in five years, when the country was struggling to recover from the 2001 recession. The housing collapse dealt the economy its biggest blow last year. Builders slashed spending on housing projects by 16.9 percent on an annualized basis, the most in 25 years.The economy has been subject to something of the perfect storm here. It has been hit by the housing slump the credit squeeze, the subprime slime and stock price declines on Wall Street, said economist Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics. The economy is weathering some pretty stormy seas but it is weak.The fourth-quarters performance was much weaker -- half the pace -- than economists were expecting. They were forecasting growth to clock in a 1.2 percent pace.The 0.6 percent annualized increase in gross domestic product GDP marked a big loss of momentum from the third quarters brisk, 4.9 percent showing. The fourth-quarter pace was the slowest since the first quarter of last year.IDEAglobals chief U.S. economist calls it stall speed according to MarketWatch.com. The GDP hit stall speed, wrote Joseph Brusuelas, chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.GDP hadnt been any slower since the end of 2002, when the economy was struggling to recover from the recession a year earlier.The 1st quarter 2008 GDP is going to be interested. Will the economy tread along, pick up speed or start to step into a recession?Permalink | Recent Headlines | WWFeeds.com

Many U.S. Citizens Think Recession is Already Here
The dreaded R word is now being used commonly in news stories and polls. A new AP-Ipsos poll has found that 61% of U.S. citizens believe the country is already in a recession. 59% are worried about their stocks and retirement investments. Technically the economy needs to shrink for two consecutive quarters or six straight months see recession definition for it to count as a recession but for the people suffering in a struggling economy the technical definition doesnt really matter. Another poll found that most people think a Democrat and not a Republican would best be able to get the nation out of a recession - that might be a sign of the way the election is going to go in November. Even author Stephen King is weighing in. Hes slamming the economic pundits who think a recession would help purge the system.Permalink | Recent Headlines | WWFeeds.com

Worst Day of 2008 For Stocks
Stocks plunge again as concerns about the economy continue. Marketwatch reports that the DOW is now at a 10-month low. Today was also the worst day of the year for the stock market. It has been a short year and it hasnt been a good year at all so far.When reminded about how bad things are, the market remembers it should go down, said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.And, it is going to take more than just monetary policy to clean up the mess weve made with this economy, Hogan said.The Philadelphia Fed Survey was a disaster, defying even the most pessimistic projections, said Frederic Ruffy, an analyst at Optionetics.Heres a look at the numbers.DOW - lost 300 points - 2.5%. Hits 10-month low.NASDAQ - lost 47.69 points - 2%S&P 500 - lost 39.94 points - 2.9%.The tumble began when the Philadelphia Fed reported dismal figures.Shortly before the Fed chairman spoke, the Philadelphia Fed said its measure of manufacturing activity feel sharply to a negative 20.9 from a revised reading of negative 1.6 in December. The report underscored the seriousness of the economic concerns that have in recent weeks drawn the focus of both Wall Street and Washington.The Philadelphia Fed just announced dreadful numbers, said John ODonoghue, co-head of equities at Cowen & Co. He said if you look back at Philadelphia Fed data for similar numbers, it takes you back to the 2001 to 2002 recession.Its not rocket science - the economy is slowing dramatically, and its being reflected in economic reports.Bloomberg says Merrill Lynchs huge 4th quarter loss also played a role in the bad day on Wall Street.Permalink | Recent Headlines | WWFeeds.com

Wholesale Prices Up 6.3% in 2007
The Labar Department reported today that wholesale prices roses 6.3% in 2007 - the largest increase in 26 years. The AP reports that big inflation increase could impact the Feds decision on whether or not to raise rates.The Labor Department reported that wholesale inflation was up 6.3 percent for all of 2007, reflecting a huge increase for the year in various types of energy costs ranging from gasoline to home heating oil.Meanwhile, retail sales fell by 0.4 percent in December, the worst showing in six months, the Commerce Department reported. Consumer confidence has plunged, reflecting the worsening housing slump and a lingering credit crisis.For inflation, the year ended on a more positive note, with wholesale prices falling by 0.1 percent in December. That reflected decreasing costs last month for gasoline and other energy products. It was a significant slowdown after prices had soared by 3.2 percent in November, which had been the biggest one-month increase in 34 years.The combination of rising inflation pressures and a weak economy represent a dilemma for the Federal Reserve over whether to cut rates to boost economic growth even at the risk of making inflation worse.Prices were moderating somewhat in December but that could have been the result of holiday sales and weaker energy numbers. It would be a mistake to say continued inflation is not a serious concern for 2008 especially with the spring driving season just ahead.Permalink | Recent Headlines | WWFeeds.com

Super Tuesday is Terrible Tuesday for Stock Market
The American public is busy trying to figure out what all these polls mean about who is going to be their partys candidate. Meanwhile, Super Tuesday has turned out to be Terrible Tuesday for the stock market. Todays news that service sector shrank sent stocks in the wrong direction.The volatility that pummeled stocks in January returned with the news that the service sector shrank last month for the first time since March 2003. The report from the Institute for Supply Management wiped out the nascent optimism about the economy that had sent stocks surging higher last week.The report drives a nail into the coffin from investors minds that were in a recession, said Todd Salamone, director of trading at Schaeffers Investment Research. That doesnt mean stock prices in the months ahead will be lower. But when you see headline numbers like this, there tends to be a reactionary sell.The ISM said its index of service sector activity, which accounts for about two-thirds of the economy, dropped below 50, a level that indicates contraction. Economists had expected another month of growth.Its possible the service sector, which includes businesses ranging from restaurants to retailers to banks, could bounce back in February as the manufacturing sector did in January after its December contraction. The benefit of the Federal Reserves two big interest rate cuts in the latter part of January could also help spur the service sector back into growth mode later this year.Marketwatchs entry says the data today is pointing toward a recession.Todays awful numbers:Dow down 370.03 2.93% - biggest one-day point drop for Dow since it dropped 387 points on Aug. 9, 2007.Nasdaq lost 73.28 3.08%Standard and Poors 500 lost 44.18 3.20%Permalink | Recent Headlines | WWFeeds.com

Miserable Opening Bell?
The New York Times reports that the stock market plunge in Asia and Europe continued into Tuesday. Stocks are falling due to concerns that the U.S. economy is headed for a recession. MarketWatch has a roundup of the two day losses.Shanghai two days: -12%Japans Nikkei 225 two days: - 10.2%Hang Seng two days: -13.7%U.K. FTSE 100 two days: -8.6%German DAX 30 two days: -12.4%This sell off could extend to U.S. stocks today.Amid fears that the United States may be in a recession, the decline in stock markets accelerated this morning as exchanges opened across Asia.Markets in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney all fell farther in the opening hours of trading today than they had all day Monday. Until now, overseas markets had largely avoided the sell-off that has caused steep declines recently in the United States, whose markets were closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther Kings Birthday. But investors reacted with what many analysts described as panic to the multiplying signs of weakness in the U.S. economy.And in a sign that the United States could join the sell-off today, trading in U.S. stock futures Monday suggested that the Dow Jones industrial average would fall more than 500 points at the opening bell.Marketwatch also says that the DJIA futures are currently down 650 points which could result in a miserable and nervous day of stock trading today.Permalink | Recent Headlines | WWFeeds.com

Jobs Report Shows Weakening Economy
Yesterdays jobs report told a tale of weakness. The U.S. economy lost over 60,000 jobs in the short month of February and over 20,000 jobs in January. An AP article says the pink slips have increased and some economists hear the recession bell ringing.The grim snapshot of the countrys employment climate underscored the heavy toll the housing and credit debacles are taking on companies, jobseekers and the economy as a whole.It sounds like the recession bell is ringing for the U.S. economy, although it is still faint, said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.On Wall Street, stocks tumbled. The Dow Jones lost 146.70 points, a little more than 1 percent to close at 11,893.69. The Dow was down 370 for the last two days of the week.The worsening situation will prompt the Federal Reserve to cut a key interest rate deeply -- perhaps by as much as three-quarters of a percentage point -- at its next meeting March 18, or possibly sooner, to help brace the teetering economy, analysts predicted.The shower of pink slips was widespread. Factories, construction companies, mortgage brokers, real-estate firms, retailers, temporary-help firms, child day-care providers, hotels, educational services, accounting firms and computer designers were among those shedding jobs. All those cuts swamped job gains at hospitals and other health care sites, bars and restaurants, legal services and the government.President Bush was quick to reassure everyone that the economy is not in a recession. Bush said, I know this is a difficult time for our economy, but we recognized the problem early and provided the economy with a booster shot. We will begin to see the impact over the coming months.Less and less people are expecting the quick recovery that President Bush is. With the DOW falling under the 12,000 mark Friday next week could be a difficult one.Permalink | Recent Headlines | WWFeeds.com

Oil Closes at $100+ and Stock Rally Fizzles
Just as stocks seemed to be gaining some momentum oil closes at above $100 a barrel for the first time and the rally fizzles. The Dow ended up down over 10 points and the Nasdaq fell by over 15 points. There is concern that the high oil prices will translate into high gas prices during the summer driving months that will reduce consumer spending even more than the weak economy already has. In the video Reuters says OPEC mentioned a supply cut which helped to drive up oil prices.Permalink | Recent Headlines | WWFeeds.com

Gold Soars to 27-Year High
Gold prices are climbing as the dollar falls. The Financial Times reports that Gold prices climbed to $752.80 an ounce - the highest price for gold since January 1980.The dollar hit a record low against major currencies and gold reached a 27-year high on Friday as investors ignored data suggesting that inflation moderated last month.Analysts said the prospect of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and stronger growth outside the US was weighing on the dollar and boosting commodities.The Feds rate cuts have a specific driver - growth risks for the US economy, said Naomi Fink, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas.A USA Today article about todays new gold record has a chart that shows how investors have been seeking shelter in gold over the past two months.Permalink | Recent Headlines | WWFeeds.comVisit ShoppersShop.coms Halloween Shopping Website to find costumes, coupons and resources.